Australian Open Men’s Day 3 Predictions Including Fritz vs Royer

The first round of the Australian Open wraps up on Day 3 as some of the top players in the world make their 2026 Melbourne debuts. No. 9 seed Taylor Fritz squares off against Frenchman Valentin Royer. Elsewhere around the grounds, Day 3 welcomes Jannik Sinner vs Hugo Gaston, Ben Shelton vs Ugo Humbert, Lorenzo Musetti vs Raphael Collignon, and Karen Khachanov vs Alex Michelsen. Offering their insights and predictions are Zain Mustafa, Ilemona Onekutu, and Tope Oke. But who will advance?

Australian Open Men’s Day 3 Predictions

Grigor Dimitrov vs Tomas Machac

Zain
One of the matches of the first round, both these players have great contrasting styles of tennis, and unfortunately fragile bodies capable of getting injured at any time. But as things stand, Grigor Dimitrov is still shaking off rust after his long rehab from a pectoral injury, while Tomas Machac just won a title last week. That difference in confidence is enough for me.
Prediction: Machac in 4

Ilemona
Machac’s pace can trouble anyone, yet Dimitrov’s shot selection and ability to change gears offer more solutions. If rallies extend, his variety should tip the balance.
Prediction: Dimitrov in 4

Tope
It may be easier to predict there’ll be a retirement in this one than the winner. Both players have been bedevilled by injuries over the last year, with Dimitrov retiring from his last five Slam participations. Machac, on the other hand, has shown signs of recovery with his championship run in Adelaide. I think it continues in Melbourne.
Prediction: Machac in 5

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Shintaro Mochizuki

Zain
This match just happened a couple of weeks ago at the United Cup, which Stefanos Tsitsipas won without much stress. And while Shintaro Mochizuki is a capable baseliner, Tsitsipas has looked better so far in 2026 than what we witnessed in 2025, and his experience of making deep runs at the Australian Open alone is enough reason to give him the nod here.
Prediction: Tsitsipas in 4

Ilemona
Mochizuki’s speed creates moments, but sustaining that intensity against heavy topspin is demanding. Tsitsipas’ forehand patterns and net instincts should gradually pull him clear.
Prediction: Tsitsipas in 3

Tope
Stefanos Tsitsipas shrugged off a forgettable 2025 season by hitting the ground running at the United Cup, winning three matches on the bounce, including one against this opponent. The Greek player can draw inspiration from some of his memorable performances in Melbourne to defeat Shintaro Mochizuki, who is winless in six matches
Prediction: Tsitsipas in 4

Jakub Mensik vs Pablo Carreno Busta

Zain
Pablo Carreno Busta, a very solid player at his best, is now far removed from the level that once saw him capture a Masters title. Jakub Mensik in best-of-five tennis is still a big question mark, but his confidence from a recent title, and in this match-up, are just too big of parameters to ignore.
Prediction: Mensik in 4

Ilemona
Carreno Busta’s experience is invaluable, but Mensik’s power and serving trajectory can overwhelm if he stays composed. The younger player’s ability to win cheap points may prove decisive.
Prediction: Mensik in 3

Tope
Best-of-five matches often reveal Jakub Mensik’s physical limitations, and it may even be more evident after his title-winning run in Auckland. That said, 34-year-old Pablo Carreno Busta will have to deliver an extraordinary performance to beat the youngster and advance to the second round.
Prediction: Mensik in 4

Taylor Fritz vs Valentin Royer

Zain
Taylor Fritz’s 2026 season has started in the worst possible way, with his level in matches and comments in press conferences regarding his ongoing knee issues both being concerning. Add to that the fact the American has tended to struggle down under, and an upset would not be an unlikely outcome, but still one I cannot fully commit to given Valentin Royer’s own four-match losing streak.
Prediction: Fritz in 4

Ilemona
Royer’s movement keeps him competitive, but Fritz’s first-serve accuracy and forehand depth consistently set the tone. Once he establishes control of service games, the gap widens quickly.
Prediction: Fritz in 3

Tope
Taylor Fritz hasn’t looked his imperious best this season, and there is concrete cause to believe he may still not be 100% fit heading into this one. While Valentin Royer has shown he can defeat vulnerable top players, the American should be able to hang on and avoid an upset.
Prediction: Fritz in 4

Main Photo Credit: Aaron Doster – Imagn Images