São Paulo – Flamengo, 01/29/2026: prediction, odds and match time

The 2026 edition of the Brasileirão Série A kicks off earlier than usual due to the upcoming World Cup, and it does so with a true clash of giants. São Paulo and Flamengo meet on Wednesday, January 28, at 21:30 (Brasília time), in what promises to be one of the most anticipated fixtures of the opening round. The match will take place at the MorumBIS, one of the largest stadiums in Brazil, and will mark the beginning of a long journey for both clubs aiming to start the season on the right foot.

São Paulo’s Recent Form and Key Stats

São Paulo enter this match looking to bounce back from a difficult start to the year. In the state championship, the Tricolor have managed only one victory in five matches, a narrow 1-0 win over São Bernardo. Their most recent outing ended in a 3-1 defeat to Palmeiras, leaving them in 14th place in the Paulista standings, level on points with the first team in the relegation zone. The team’s inconsistency has been a concern, especially in defense, where they have conceded an average of two goals per game across their last five fixtures.

Despite the struggles, São Paulo have shown some positive trends at home. They have won at half time in 9 of their last 12 home matches in Serie A, and in 11 of their last 17 overall. Matches involving the Tricolor tend to open up after the break, with Over 0.5 goals in the second half recorded in 13 consecutive games. However, their attacking efficiency remains modest, averaging just one goal scored per match in recent outings.

In terms of squad news, São Paulo will be without young forward Paulinho, who suffered a knee ligament injury. On the positive side, Nicolas, Pedro Ferreira, and midfielder Luan are back in contention, giving the coach more options for the season opener. The team will need to rediscover its rhythm quickly if it hopes to challenge the reigning champions.

Flamengo’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Flamengo, the defending champions of both the Brasileirão and the Copa Libertadores, also arrive under pressure after a disappointing start to their state campaign. The Rubro-Negro lost 2-1 to Fluminense in their last match and currently sit near the bottom of their Carioca group with only four points from five games. Their recent form mirrors that of their opponents: one win, one draw, and three defeats in the last five matches, with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game.

Despite the shaky start, Flamengo’s squad depth remains one of the strongest in South America. The team has faced some injury setbacks, with Saúl and Danilo ruled out, while Ayrton Lucas, De la Cruz, Arrascaeta, and Jorginho are doubtful. Even so, the visitors are expected to field a competitive lineup, with Rossi in goal and attacking options such as Cebolinha and Pedro leading the charge. Historically, Flamengo have performed well against São Paulo in recent meetings, losing only once in their last four encounters.

Flamengo’s challenge will be to regain their defensive solidity and rediscover their attacking rhythm. Their matches have often been tight, with Under 2.5 goals occurring slightly more frequently (52%) than overs, and Both Teams To Score happening in just over half of their recent games (53%).

Head-to-Head and Tactical Overview

The rivalry between São Paulo and Flamengo is one of the most storied in Brazilian football. Across 120 official meetings, São Paulo hold a narrow advantage with 46 wins to Flamengo’s 40, alongside 34 draws. However, the balance has shifted in recent years, with Flamengo dominating the latest encounters. Their last meeting ended in a 2-2 draw on November 6, 2025, a result that reflected the attacking potential of both sides.

São Paulo’s home advantage could play a role, especially given their tendency to start matches strongly at the MorumBIS. Yet, Flamengo’s superior squad depth and experience in decisive fixtures make them slight favorites. Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities, suggesting that the match could see goals at both ends, particularly in the second half when São Paulo’s games tend to open up.

Key trends to consider include:

• Over 0.5 goals in the second half in 13 consecutive São Paulo matches.
• Over 7.5 corners in 19 of São Paulo’s last 20 games.
• At least one team failed to score at half time in 33 of São Paulo’s last 35 matches.
• Flamengo have averaged fewer than one goal per game in their last five outings.

São Paulo vs Flamengo Prediction

Both teams enter the Brasileirão opener eager to turn the page after underwhelming state campaigns. São Paulo will rely on their home crowd and early intensity, while Flamengo’s quality and experience could prove decisive as the match progresses. Given the balance of recent performances and the statistical trends, this fixture is likely to be competitive and tactically cautious in the early stages.

BetMines prediction: São Paulo vs Flamengo – Draw (X) with 26% probability.