Nuggets at Trail Blazers Best Prop Bets for Friday 2/20/26

After the All-Star break last season, the Portland Trail Blazers flashed signs of greatness, posting the fourth-best defensive rating and only narrowly missing out on the Play-In Tournament. This season, they’ve taken a small step forward, sitting 10th in the West but within reasonable striking distance of eighth, and all five teams below them have neither the interest in winning nor the ability to win.

They have a pretty tough task tonight in their first game after the All-Star break, when they host the fourth-seeded Denver Nuggets for a 10:10 p.m. ET clash. Shaedon Sharpe (calf) remains out for Portland, but Kris Murray (back) and Matisse Thybulle (knee), who have both been out for more than a month, have been upgraded to questionable. Denver, meanwhile, hasn’t released an injury report yet, but Aaron Gordon (hamstring) and Peyton Watson (hamstring) will be absent.

The game is more or less a toss-up, with the Nuggets -118 on the Moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook and the Trail Blazers -102. Below, I’ve laid out my three player prop bets from tonight’s inter-conference matchup.

Deni Avdija 25+ Points (-111)

Avdija somewhat limped into the All-Star break, appearing in only six of Portland’s final 17 games before the break because of a series of back issues, and he only recorded 25 or more points twice in that span. Before his injury, though, he’d been on quite the tear, scoring 25 or more points in five of his first six games of 2026, and he played at least seven minutes in both of Team World’s All-Star games, though he wasn’t particularly effective in either of them. Now that he’s had time off to recover, he’s not expected to be on a minutes restriction tonight.

If Avdija is truly close to 100%, Denver could have some trouble slowing him down. Jokić’s Nuggets have never been an elite defensive team, in part because of the superstar center’s mobility issues, and Denver currently has two of its strongest defenders (Gordon and Watson) sidelined. In the teams’ first matchup this season, Avdija scored 23 points despite Gordon playing and limiting him to just two points in 16.8 partial possessions. The Nuggets have also given up an above-average number of free throws over the last nine games, and Avdija has been one of the league’s premier contact-initiators.

Nikola Jokić O1.5 Steals (+131)

While Jokić isn’t known for his defense, his high basketball IQ and quick hands make him adept at racking up steals, and the 1.3 steals per game that he averages for his career is the seventh-highest among centers in NBA history. In fact, he’s had two or more steals three times in eight games since returning from his hyperextended knee despite playing fewer than his average of 34.3 minutes per game in six of the eight.

Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers’ youth and lack of true point guard for most of the season means they’ve been pretty sloppy on the ball. This season, Portland has conceded 11.0 steals per game — 1.2 more than any other team — and even since Jrue Holiday returned from his injury on January 11, that number has actually gone up to 11.9 steals per game. Jokić should be able to wait in the middle and take advantage of Avdija’s flailing drives, as the Israeli ranks third in turnovers per game. He could also benefit from a possible lifting of Scoot Henderson’s minutes restriction, given that the third-year guard has coughed up 18 turnovers in four games.

Toumani Camara 3+ Three-Pointers Made (+100)

The 2024-25 All-Defensive Second Team honoree hasn’t taken the leap that many expected this season, as his defensive metrics are down across the board and his three-point accuracy is slightly down. Opponents clearly don’t respect his shot, allowing him to attempt the sixth-most wide-open threes of any player. But he’s started to figure it out: in his last 12 games, he’s shooting 45.7% from beyond the arc, and he’s hit at least three threes in eight of them. While some of those games came without Avdija, he’s had 1.1 made threes per game this season assisted by him, which should more than make up for his slight uptick in usage.

Denver, meanwhile, gives up a decent number of threes. All in all, it has allowed the 10th-most three-point tries per game this season, which has risen to the third-most since Gordon’s latest injury. It’s not like the Nuggets have done a great job contesting such threes, either; for the season, they rank second-to-last in three-point contests per game. Camara should benefit: his accuracy on wide-open threes has been solid (39.0%), and he’s converted catch-and-shoot looks at a solid 37.6% clip.