Bucks at Wizards Best Prop Bets for Thursday 1/29/26

The Giannis Antetokounmpo trade saga continues to hang over the Milwaukee Bucks, as the Greek Freak might have played his final game with the franchise. For now, though, there are games to play, and on Thursday evening, Milwaukee will face the one of the teams that has made a deal: the Washington Wizards, who dealt for the injured Trae Young.

The game will be nationally televised on Amazon Prime and will begin at 7 p.m. ET. In addition to Antetokounmpo, Kevin Porter Jr. (oblique) and Gary Harris (hamstring) are the main contributors who will be out for the Bucks, with Cole Anthony (illness) questionable. The Wizards’ big absences are Young, Marvin Bagley III (thoracic), Tristan Vukcevic (hamstring), and Cam Whitmore (deep vein thrombosis), with Alex Sarr (illness) questionable.

Milwaukee is a 2.5-point favorite (-130 on the Moneyline) for tonight’s game, and Washington is +110 on the Moneyline. The point total is set to 222.5. Below, I’ve laid out my three player prop bets.

Alexandre Sarr 35+ Points + Rebounds + Assists (+147)

Sarr sat out practice in advance of last night’s game against the Portland Trail Blazers with his illness, but he hardly looked compromised, scoring 29 points, grabbing 12 rebounds, and dishing out three assists and surpassing 35 P/R/A for the second time in his past four games. Last season’s second overall pick has blossomed into a star, averaging 17.7 points and 7.5 rebounds per game this season. His minutes load has been high in recent games with Bagley and Vukcevic sidelined, and he arguably should’ve scored more than 29 points last night, given that he attempted 29 shots.

He should have a good opportunity to improve his efficiency tonight against a Bucks defense that has been extremely poor in the 15 games that Antetokounmpo has missed this season. Without the Greek Freak, Milwaukee has conceded 119.0 points per 100 possessions, a mark that would rank fourth-to-last across the full season, and between November 20 and December 26 — a span in which Antetokounmpo played only 82 minutes — the Bucks allowed the 10th-highest percentage on shots within five feet, a range in which Sarr attempts nearly half his shots. Milwaukee has also had just a 45.9% rebounding percentage without Antetokounmpo on the court, which would be tied for the second-lowest across a full season since 2001-02.

Ryan Rollins 23+ Points (-109)

Rollins has been one of the league’s most improved players this season, stepping into the vacuum left by Damian Lillard’s Achilles tear and subsequent release to emerge as the Bucks’ starting point guard, and he’s made a very solid two-way impact, appearing in each of Milwaukee’s 45 games and averaging 16.3 points, 5.4 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. He’s coming off of a 24-point effort last night against the Philadelphia 76ers, and with Porter and Antetokounmpo out, no player on the team is even within 20 touches per game of him.

Rollins has a great matchup against the Wizards’ rebuilding defense. After a brief hot stretch, Washington is just 1-9 in its last 10 games and has given up the third-most points per game across that span. It’s not like the Wizards have any great perimeter stoppers: rookie Tre Johnson ranks 646th in composite metric D-DARKO and Bilal Coulibaly is only a slightly positive defender. Plus, Washington is extremely foul-prone, having allowed the most free throw attempts over the last 10 games, and Rollins leads all healthy Bucks in free throw attempts.

Tre Johnson 3+ Three-Pointers Made (-138)

One upside of playing on a rebuilding team is that Johnson has gotten to fire away with reckless abandon for the Wizards, sometimes taking audacious logo-range threes. It’s worked: among the 11 rookies who have played at least 35 games and attempted at least three three-pointers per night, Johnson’s 39.8% accuracy ranks second. He also ranks 15th among all qualified shooters in three-point percentage over expectation, according to the NBA’s Inside the Game stats. Johnson has made at least three triples in each of his last four games and six of his last eight.

He might not even need to be such a knockdown shooter against Milwaukee, which has allowed the fifth-most wide-open threes per game this season, a number that jumped by 1.8 per game during Antetokounmpo’s original spell on the sidelines. Not having Antetokounmpo to clean up mistakes everywhere on the court will force Myles Turner to stay closer to the paint defensively, opening up more of the floor for shooters, and being without Porter, who leads the team in three-point contests per game, will make closing out on those shooters more difficult.