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Final Oscar Nominations Predictions via Feinberg Forecast

Michael B Jordan in Sinners

A NOTE FROM SCOTT Set your alarms! On Thursday morning, at the ungodly hour of 5:30 a.m. PT, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will reveal its nominations for the 98th Oscars. As always, I will be at the Academy’s Beverly Hills headquarters for the announcement, excited to finally learn the answers to the questions that have been keeping me up for months, and will then hustle home to write up an analysis of what happened.

With the membership of the Academy now larger (some 11,000 members) and more spread out (25 percent outside of the U.S.) than ever, accurately projecting the noms is, I dare say, harder than ever. But below, you will find my best guesses of how things will shake out in each of the 24 categories — up one from last year, thanks to the introduction of the best casting Oscar — drawing upon screenings of all of the top contenders, conversations with a wide cross-section of voters and in-depth historical and statistical analysis.

In short, I expect the most noms to go to Sinners (15, which would break the record of 14 currently shared by 1950’s All About Eve, 1997’s Titanic and 2016’s La La Land), followed by One Battle After Another (12, including a record-tying five acting noms) and, in a tie for third, Frankenstein and Hamnet (11 each). Only once before have four films broken into double digits, six years ago.

In terms of companies, Warner Bros. — currently in a tug-of-war between Netflix and Paramount — will easily lead the field. Between Sinners, One Battle, F1, Weapons and Superman, I anticipate 32 noms, which would be the most for a single company since Netflix landed 35 five years ago. Trailing behind will be Netflix (19 between Frankenstein, Train Dreams, KPop Demon Hunters, The Perfect Neighbor and a couple of shorts), Neon (17 between Sentimental Value, Sirat, The Secret Agent and It Was Just an Accident) and Focus (15 between Hamnet and Bugonia).

Across all categories, I expect a strong — and possibly unprecedented — showing for non-English-language films (those international voters are not deterred by subtitles, and far fewer English-speakers are than used to be), and a bruising day for people not associated with best picture nominees (there has been an influx of younger voters, many of whom are too busy to see a large number of films, resulting in heavy coattails for the films that they do see and like).

Of course, there also will be, as always, surprise inclusions and omissions, which make the whole thing all the more fun and heartbreaking. We’ll be covering every aspect of the day and the season at THR.com, so be sure to bookmark that URL, as well as this one to specifically access my latest coverage, and this one to catch my Awards Chatter podcast, which features career-encompassing interviews with many of the top contenders.

Good luck and godspeed to us all!



Caio Rocha
Caio Rocha

Sou Caio Rocha, redator especializado em Tecnologia da Informação, com formação em Ciência da Computação. Escrevo sobre inovação, segurança digital, software e tendências do setor. Minha missão é traduzir o universo tech em uma linguagem acessível, ajudando pessoas e empresas a entenderem e aproveitarem o poder da tecnologia no dia a dia.

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