Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks 01/06

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Miami Heat/Minnesota Timberwolves First Quarter Over 61.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on NBC

These teams just played and only put up 52 points in the first quarter, so it’s a little curious why I’m liking the early over tonight. Well, venue matters quite a bit for both teams, particularly Miami who has vastly different first quarters depending on whether they’re in South Beach or not. The Heat lead the league in first quarter scoring this season, but it’s mostly thanks to averaging 33.8 in road games.

Miami also gives up more first quarter points on the road than at home, as their overall defensive efficiency takes a hit in road games. Minnesota is the opposite, as they score more first quarter points at home as well as allow more at Target Center. With the Heat possibly getting Tyler Herro back tonight to boost their scoring, I’m seeing plenty of reason why this first quarter total is so high and I’m willing to look to the over.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Luka Doncic Over 34 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on Spectrum Sports Net

It was an up and down December for Luka as the Lakers experienced some struggles, but this is not a matchup where he should struggle to score in bunches. The Pelicans are not putting much effort into the defensive end of the floor, ranked 28th in defensive efficiency and around there in just about every other defensive metric. But I always love finding ways to fade what they do worst, which is defend inside as they’re dead last in two-point percentage allowed.

Luka should be able to get whatever he wants at the rim and in the mid-range tonight, and he’ll be asked to carry the scoring load here. The previous two meetings saw Doncic put up 24 and 34 points, but those were games where Austin Reaves put up 30-plus. Without Reaves tonight, look for Luka to go wild against what is one of the better matchups for him in the league.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Iowa/Minnesota Under 129.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on BTN

This might be one of the slowest-paced college basketball games you’ll see this season, as two teams that crawl up and down the floor face off. Iowa comes to Williams Arena ranked 354th in adjusted tempo, with the country’s 20th-slowest offensive possession, which is exactly what Ben McCollumn wants from his Hawkeyes. You won’t see the Gophers complain, as they’re 350th in adjusted tempo and have done an excellent job of forcing long possessions on defense.

So Iowa will probably be burning just about all of the shot clock every time down the floor, and their defense that is 19th in adjusted efficiency will be putting the clamps down on the Gophers who don’t have much scoring pop. But we’ve also seen the Hawkeyes forget to bring their offense on the road, only scoring 52 and 62 points in their true road games so far. If that happens again tonight, combined with the snail’s pace, we’ll see another under for a Gopher squad that already has the 14th-best under record in the country.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Michigan -21.5 @ Penn State (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on FS1

This number has come down considerably, and that makes it worth playing in my opinion. I was having a moral dilemma about laying a boatload of points in a conference road game, even though it’s this absolutely insane Michigan squad we’re talking about. The Wolverines just don’t stop rolling, and this is a game where they can deliver another beatdown if things go right.

It’s tough to know what you’re going to get out of Penn State, which I think partly explains the line move, but if things go according to plan they’ll get smashed here. The Nittany Lions can’t stop anything inside or outside, ranked 307th in effective field goal defense. This is a team that lost by 34 to lowly Pitt and gave up 113 to Indiana, so they have a penchant for getting run out.

Michigan finally experienced shooting regression in their last game, but still covered easily despite shooting 20% from deep. If they lean on their defense again they’ll smother PSU, who can’t shoot from outside and will have to face the most fearsome frontcourt in the country, so that’s how this one gets out of control and Michigan covers again.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Duke/Louisville Over 161.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

This Duke defense has gotten really worrisome, and this is the second straight bad matchup for their main weakness. Just one month ago, after Duke had knocked off Michigan State in a great defensive performance, they were 9th nationally in three-point percentage defense. The Blue Devils are now ranked 52nd and they’ve only played 4 games in that span, so perimeter defense has become a major issue.

Enter Louisville, who is third in the country in three-pointers attempted and made per game. Duke just played Florida State over the weekend who’s on par with the Cardinals in those stats and gave up 87 points. So I think Louisville can score here, but they’ve also had trouble defending high-level offenses as they’ve allowed 84.5 PPG to their four top-30 KenPom opponents so far. This is a tightly-lined game with lots of ACC implications, which means late fouls to help boost scoring, and I think it all adds to an easy over.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Texas A&M/Auburn Over 167.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on SEC Network

If the Gophers game is making your eyes bleed, switch over to this one at halftime for the complete opposite experience. Both the Aggies and the Tigers want to get up and down the floor in a big hurry, especially A&M who is 19th in adjusted tempo and running the 8th-fastest offensive possessions in the country. They’re also going to fire a ton of three’s in Bucky McMillan’s system, and they’ve been very successful with them this season.

Auburn is not a team that I would expect to be able to stop that barrage of three’s, as this defense has been highly questionable since opening night when they barely snuck by Bethune Cookman. They just gave up 92 points in regulation to a Georgia team that’s similarly styled to A&M, so the opportunity should be there for a lot of points. But that OT loss on Saturday should be fueling the Tigers, and they should shred an Aggies defense that has really struggled against higher level competition. I see this as a fast-paced game with a lot of excellent shooters and scorers on the floor, so I’m taking the over on the big total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 26-29 (-0.42 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.