UFC Qatar – Alex Perez vs Asu Almabayev Predictions, Betting Odds And Best Bets

Almabayev measures 5’4″ with a 65 inch reach and 22-3 record. He has conservative striking at just 2.16 per minute with superior 54% accuracy while absorbing minimal 1.75. His striking defense registers at 52%, trailing Perez’s defensive capabilities and his grappling absolutely dominates his approach with 4.66 takedowns per fight at 43% accuracy and 1.5 submission attempts. He has a concerning 50% takedown defense that presents vulnerability in scrambles.

Alex Perez vs Asu Almabayev Predictions And Picks

This UFC fight breaks down to whether Perez’s striking volume and knockout power can overwhelm Almabayev’s world-class wrestling and suffocating top control. Perez holds advantages in striking output, landing nearly double the significant strikes per minute. 

The critical factor lies in Almabayev’s wrestling dominance and defensive metrics. His high takedowns per fight creates relentless pressure that drains opponents and controls fight tempo. More impressively, Almabayev absorbs only 1.75 strikes per minute compared to Perez’s 3.20, demonstrating exceptional defensive awareness and ability to avoid damage. His 1.5 submission attempts per fight adds finishing threats beyond simple positional control.

If we bet on this fight, we are going with Asu Almabayev to win via unanimous decision.

Alex Perez vs Asu Almabayev MMA Betting Odds

Asu Almabayev enters as a solid favorite at -225 on FanDuel. Meanwhile, Alex Perez comes in as the +172 underdog. These odds reflect confidence in Almabayev’s wrestling dominance and superior defensive metrics overcoming Perez’s striking advantages.

The odds for the fight going the distance stand at -168. The odds favor judges deciding this matchup, with early finish odds at +130 reflecting both fighters’ ability to finish but also proven durability throughout lengthy careers in the flyweight division.

Alex Perez vs Asu Almabayev Best Bets

Here are the best bets for Alex Perez vs Asu Almabayev fight:

Almabayev Moneyline (-225)

Fair price on the elite wrestler with superior defensive metrics. His 4.66 takedowns per fight combined with exceptional 1.75 strikes absorbed per minute should neutralize Perez’s volume and control where the fight takes place. The world-class grappling accumulates rounds clearly through dominant position.

Almabayev by Decision (+120)

Excellent value for the grinding wrestler’s most likely path to victory. His relentless takedown pressure and top control accumulate rounds without necessarily producing finishes. 

Fight Goes Distance (-168)

Solid bet at reasonable odds. Both flyweights possess proven durability and technical skills that ensure competitive battles. This high-level flyweight clash should see all three rounds completed.

(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)

(Image Credit: Rob Kinnan – Imagn Images)

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I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!

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